Stock Price Trends

HealthEquity Inc (HQY)

HealthEquity, Inc. provides technology-enabled service platforms to consumers and employers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Draper, Utah.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.48% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $88.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.81 (0.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.08% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HQY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: March 18, 2025

a = 3.1917

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0726

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.48%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0726) – 1
= 33.67%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1917 + 0.0008 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(4.1859)
= $65.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1917 + 0.0008 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(3.8957)
= $49.19

March 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1917 + 0.0008 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(4.7706)
= $117.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1917 + 0.0008 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(4.4804)
= $88.27

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.48% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $88.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.81 (0.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 10, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 16.0079

b = -0.0063

s = 0.0378

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0063) – 1
= -90.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.35%

February 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0079 + -0.0063 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.8387)
= $126.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0079 + -0.0063 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.6873)
= $108.56

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0079 + -0.0063 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.5285)
= $92.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0079 + -0.0063 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.3771)
= $79.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.08% per annum.
  • HQY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.