Humana Inc (HUM)
Humana Inc. is a for-profit American health insurance company based in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.51% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $264.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.96% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 7.1815
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0992
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0992) – 1
= 48.71%
October 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1815 + -0.0009 × 936 + 2 × 0.0992)
= Exp(6.5549)
= $702.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1815 + -0.0009 × 936 – 2 × 0.0992)
= Exp(6.1580)
= $472.49
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1815 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0992)
= Exp(5.7713)
= $320.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1815 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0992)
= Exp(5.3744)
= $215.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.51% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $264.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 7.6510
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0958
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0958) – 1
= 46.71%
August 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6510 + -0.0012 × 1,218 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(6.4073)
= $606.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6510 + -0.0012 × 1,218 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(6.0240)
= $413.24
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6510 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.6920)
= $296.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6510 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.3087)
= $202.09
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.96% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.