Stock Price Trends

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $523.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 282.28% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024

a = 6.1362

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0486

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.46%

December 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 614 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1362 + 0.0000 × 614 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.2626)
= $524.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 614 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1362 + 0.0000 × 614 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.0682)
= $431.89

July 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1362 + 0.0000 × 1,566 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.3078)
= $548.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1362 + 0.0000 × 1,566 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $523.75 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 21, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = -0.4411

b = 0.0037

s = 0.0118

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 282.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.83%

February 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0037 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(6.1478)
= $467.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0037 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(6.1007)
= $446.16

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(6.2874)
= $537.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(6.2403)
= $513.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 282.28% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.