UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.71% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $577.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.55 (1.86%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.18% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 22, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.1026
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0515
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.87%
October 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y484)
= Exp(a + b × X484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1026 + 0.0001 × 702 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.2571)
= $521.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y484)
= Exp(a + b × X484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1026 + 0.0001 × 702 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.0511)
= $424.57
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1026 + 0.0001 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.3301)
= $561.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1026 + 0.0001 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.1241)
= $456.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.71% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $577.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.55 (1.86%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024
a = 4.4461
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0432
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.86%
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4461 + 0.0011 × 1,563 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(6.2167)
= $501.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4461 + 0.0011 × 1,563 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(6.0439)
= $421.53
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4461 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(6.4990)
= $664.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4461 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(6.3262)
= $559.03
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.18% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.