Stock Price Trends

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $424.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.73 (7.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.51% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.52 (3.09%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024

a = 6.1375

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0486

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.46%

December 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1375 + 0.0000 × 588 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.2626)
= $524.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1375 + 0.0000 × 588 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.0682)
= $431.89

July 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1375 + 0.0000 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.3078)
= $548.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1375 + 0.0000 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $424.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.73 (7.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 7.7838

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0475

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.94%

August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7838 + -0.0009 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.4957)
= $662.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7838 + -0.0009 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.3056)
= $547.64

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7838 + -0.0009 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.2956)
= $542.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7838 + -0.0009 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.1055)
= $448.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.51% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.52 (3.09%).