Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed care services to low-income individuals and families under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. The company is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.02% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $282.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.93 (1.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.28% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MOH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.6005
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0922
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0922) – 1
= 44.62%
September 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6005 + 0.0001 × 666 + 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(5.8743)
= $355.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6005 + 0.0001 × 666 – 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(5.5054)
= $246.01
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6005 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(6.0299)
= $415.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6005 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(5.6610)
= $287.43
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.02% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $282.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.93 (1.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 13, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.7567
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0756
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0756) – 1
= 35.32%
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7567 + -0.0006 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(6.1039)
= $447.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7567 + -0.0006 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(5.8014)
= $330.77
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7567 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(5.8982)
= $364.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7567 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(5.5957)
= $269.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.28% per annum.
- MOH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.