BorgWarner Inc (BWA)
BorgWarner Inc. is an American multinational automotive supplier headquartered in Auburn Hills, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.69% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $33.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.63% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BWA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 26, 2023
End date: September 18, 2024
a = 4.3793
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0655
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0655) – 1
= 29.96%
January 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y799)
= Exp(a + b × X799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + -0.0005 × 1,162 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.8905)
= $48.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y799)
= Exp(a + b × X799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + -0.0005 × 1,162 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.6285)
= $37.66
September 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + -0.0005 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.5700)
= $35.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3793 + -0.0005 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.3079)
= $27.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.69% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $33.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.3937
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0461
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.25%
November 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3937 + 0.0001 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(3.5884)
= $36.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3937 + 0.0001 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(3.4040)
= $30.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3937 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(3.6157)
= $37.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3937 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(3.4313)
= $30.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.63% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.