Stock Price Trends

Adient PLC (ADNT)

Adient plc designs, manufactures and markets a range of seating systems and components for passenger cars, commercial vehicles and light trucks. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.70% per annum.
  • ADNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $19.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.98% per annum.
  • ADNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 7, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 5.7268

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0670

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0670) – 1
= 30.71%

July 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7268 + -0.0015 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(3.9034)
= $49.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7268 + -0.0015 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(3.6356)
= $37.92

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7268 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(3.1613)
= $23.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7268 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(2.8934)
= $18.06

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.70% per annum.
  • ADNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $19.06 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 6.7308

b = -0.0021

s = 0.0464

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -52.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.39%

January 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7308 + -0.0021 × 1,524 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.6728)
= $39.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7308 + -0.0021 × 1,524 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.4873)
= $32.70

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7308 + -0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.0484)
= $21.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7308 + -0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(2.8629)
= $17.51

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.98% per annum.
  • ADNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.