Aptiv PLC (APTV)
Aptiv plc is an auto parts company headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.84% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $52.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.95% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.66 (4.81%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APTV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.3724
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1244
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1244) – 1
= 64.50%
February 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3724 + -0.0006 × 439 + 2 × 0.1244)
= Exp(5.3403)
= $208.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3724 + -0.0006 × 439 – 2 × 0.1244)
= Exp(4.8426)
= $126.79
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3724 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1244)
= Exp(4.4525)
= $85.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3724 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1244)
= Exp(3.9547)
= $52.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.84% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $52.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.7906
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0694
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0694) – 1
= 31.97%
January 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7906 + -0.0009 × 1,163 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.8848)
= $132.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7906 + -0.0009 × 1,163 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.6073)
= $100.22
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7906 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.2893)
= $72.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7906 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.0119)
= $55.25
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.95% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.66 (4.81%).