Autoliv Inc (ALV)
Autoliv, Inc. develops, manufactures and supplies automotive security systems for the automotive industry in Europe, America, China, Japan and the rest of Asia. The company is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.39% per annum.
- ALV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $96.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.66% per annum.
- ALV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: November 6, 2024
a = 6.9139
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0470
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.69%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9139 + -0.0013 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.9221)
= $137.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9139 + -0.0013 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.7340)
= $113.75
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9139 + -0.0013 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.6036)
= $99.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9139 + -0.0013 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.4156)
= $82.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.39% per annum.
- ALV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $96.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024
a = 2.3197
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0179
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0179) – 1
= 7.41%
September 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3197 + 0.0012 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(4.5570)
= $95.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3197 + 0.0012 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(4.4855)
= $88.73
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3197 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(4.6306)
= $102.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3197 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(4.5591)
= $95.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.66% per annum.
- ALV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.