Strategic Education Inc (STRA)
Strategic Education, Inc., offers postsecondary education and non-degree programs. The company is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.68% per annum.
- STRA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $95.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.23 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.01% per annum.
- STRA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.33 (4.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STRA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2021
End date: August 1, 2024
a = 3.4292
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0979
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0979) – 1
= 47.93%
November 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4292 + 0.0007 × 714 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.1484)
= $63.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4292 + 0.0007 × 714 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.7569)
= $42.81
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4292 + 0.0007 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.8823)
= $131.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4292 + 0.0007 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.4908)
= $89.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.68% per annum.
- STRA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $95.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.23 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 7.7880
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0473
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -49.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.83%
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7880 + -0.0018 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.8986)
= $134.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7880 + -0.0018 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.7094)
= $110.99
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7880 + -0.0018 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.5406)
= $93.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7880 + -0.0018 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.3514)
= $77.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.01% per annum.
- STRA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.33 (4.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.