Stock Price Trends

Stride Inc (LRN)

Stride, Inc., a technology-based education company, provides its own and third-party online educational services, software systems and curricula to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through grade 12 (K -12) in the United States and internationally. .

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.00% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $102.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 81.42% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.9887

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0917

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0917) – 1
= 44.32%

October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y737)
= Exp(a + b × X737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,070 + 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(3.6223)
= $37.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y737)
= Exp(a + b × X737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,070 – 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(3.2554)
= $25.93

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(4.6469)
= $104.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(4.2800)
= $72.24

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.00% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $102.80 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 13, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.5400

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0826

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0826) – 1
= 39.18%

June 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5400 + 0.0016 × 1,300 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(3.8268)
= $45.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5400 + 0.0016 × 1,300 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(3.4962)
= $32.99

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5400 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.6852)
= $108.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5400 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.3546)
= $77.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 81.42% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.