Duolingo Inc (DUOL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.21% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $208.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.39% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DUOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.8578
b = 0.0016
s = 0.1658
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1658) – 1
= 94.08%
April 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8578 + 0.0016 × 267 + 2 × 0.1658)
= Exp(4.6037)
= $99.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8578 + 0.0016 × 267 – 2 × 0.1658)
= Exp(3.9406)
= $51.45
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8578 + 0.0016 × 1,016 + 2 × 0.1658)
= Exp(5.7662)
= $319.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8578 + 0.0016 × 1,016 – 2 × 0.1658)
= Exp(5.1031)
= $164.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.21% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $208.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 5.7640
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0889
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0889) – 1
= 42.70%
November 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7640 + -0.0005 × 834 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.5599)
= $259.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7640 + -0.0005 × 834 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.2043)
= $182.06
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7640 + -0.0005 × 1,136 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.4216)
= $226.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7640 + -0.0005 × 1,136 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.0660)
= $158.55
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.39% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.