Duolingo Inc (DUOL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 764.39% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $331.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 167.65% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DUOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 18, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -1.3107
b = 0.0059
s = 0.0614
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0059) – 1
= 764.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0614) – 1
= 27.83%
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y747)
= Exp(a + b × X747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3107 + 0.0059 × 1,086 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.2295)
= $186.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y747)
= Exp(a + b × X747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3107 + 0.0059 × 1,086 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.9840)
= $146.06
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3107 + 0.0059 × 1,211 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.9681)
= $390.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3107 + 0.0059 × 1,211 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.7226)
= $305.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 764.39% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $331.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4966
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 167.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0271) – 1
= 11.45%
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4966 + 0.0027 × 1,149 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.6499)
= $284.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4966 + 0.0027 × 1,149 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.5416)
= $255.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4966 + 0.0027 × 1,211 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.8172)
= $336.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4966 + 0.0027 × 1,211 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.7088)
= $301.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 167.65% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.