Graham Holdings Co (GHC)
Graham Holdings Company is a diversified global media and education company. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.56% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $906.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 112.56% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.3233
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0482
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0482) – 1
= 21.28%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3233 + 0.0008 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(6.3858)
= $593.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3233 + 0.0008 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(6.1928)
= $489.22
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3233 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(6.8298)
= $924.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3233 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(6.6368)
= $762.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.56% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $906.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.0231
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 112.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.26%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0231 + 0.0021 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(6.6499)
= $772.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0231 + 0.0021 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(6.4822)
= $653.40
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0231 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(6.8792)
= $971.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0231 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(6.7115)
= $821.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 112.56% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.