Skechers USA Inc (SKX)
Skechers USA, Inc. designs, develops, markets and distributes footwear for men, women and children; and high-performance footwear for men and women under the Skechers brand worldwide. The company is headquartered in Manhattan Beach, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.82% per annum.
- SKX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.43% per annum.
- SKX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SKX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: October 11, 2024
a = 2.8470
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0749
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0749) – 1
= 34.94%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0008 × 896 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.7119)
= $40.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0008 × 896 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.4123)
= $30.33
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0008 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.4223)
= $83.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0008 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.1226)
= $61.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.82% per annum.
- SKX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.3338
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.16%
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3338 + -0.0007 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.3404)
= $76.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3338 + -0.0007 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.1735)
= $64.94
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3338 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.2109)
= $67.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3338 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.0440)
= $57.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.43% per annum.
- SKX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.