Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs, markets and distributes footwear, apparel and accessories for casual lifestyle and high performance activities. The company is headquartered in Goleta, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.47% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $859.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $30.52 (3.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.17% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: August 30, 2024
a = 4.0029
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0808
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0808) – 1
= 38.17%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0029 + 0.0016 × 907 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(5.6317)
= $279.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0029 + 0.0016 × 907 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(5.3084)
= $202.03
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0029 + 0.0016 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(7.1037)
= $1,216.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0029 + 0.0016 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(6.7804)
= $880.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.47% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $859.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $30.52 (3.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 9.7750
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0512
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0512) – 1
= 22.75%
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7750 + -0.0016 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(7.0475)
= $1,150.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7750 + -0.0016 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(6.8425)
= $936.87
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7750 + -0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(6.8747)
= $967.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7750 + -0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(6.6697)
= $788.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.17% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.