Stock Price Trends

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a leading designer, marketer, and distributor of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily targeting the casual lifestyle and high-performance sectors. Headquartered in Goleta, California, the company is renowned for its innovative brands, including UGG, HOKA ONE ONE, Teva, and Sanuk, which cater to a diverse consumer base. With a strong commitment to sustainability and product quality, Deckers continues to expand its market presence, leveraging e-commerce and international growth strategies to enhance shareholder value.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.11% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of October 17, 2025 was $99.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.67% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of October 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: October 17, 2025

a = 6.7966

b = -0.0012

s = 0.1627

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1627) – 1
= 91.71%

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7966 + -0.0012 × 1,313 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(5.5664)
= $261.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7966 + -0.0012 × 1,313 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.9156)
= $136.40

October 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7966 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.9611)
= $142.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7966 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.3102)
= $74.46

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.11% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of October 17, 2025 was $99.82 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 2, 2025
End date: October 17, 2025

a = 15.0205

b = -0.0057

s = 0.0255

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0057) – 1
= -87.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0255) – 1
= 10.73%

September 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0205 + -0.0057 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.8696)
= $130.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0205 + -0.0057 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.7677)
= $117.65

October 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0205 + -0.0057 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.6115)
= $100.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0205 + -0.0057 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.5096)
= $90.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.67% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of October 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.