Stock Price Trends

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a leading designer, marketer, and distributor of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily targeting the casual lifestyle and high-performance sectors. Headquartered in Goleta, California, the company is renowned for its innovative brands, including UGG, HOKA ONE ONE, Teva, and Sanuk, which cater to a diverse consumer base. With a strong commitment to sustainability and product quality, Deckers continues to expand its market presence, leveraging e-commerce and international growth strategies to enhance shareholder value.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.32% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of November 17, 2025 was $80.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.06% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of November 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: November 17, 2025

a = 6.8997

b = -0.0013

s = 0.1627

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1627) – 1
= 91.74%

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8997 + -0.0013 × 1,283 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(5.5833)
= $265.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8997 + -0.0013 × 1,283 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.9324)
= $138.71

November 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8997 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.8897)
= $132.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8997 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.2388)
= $69.32

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.32% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of November 17, 2025 was $80.72 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 2, 2025
End date: November 17, 2025

a = 15.4296

b = -0.0061

s = 0.0417

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.17%

September 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4296 + -0.0061 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.9099)
= $135.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4296 + -0.0061 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.7429)
= $114.77

November 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4296 + -0.0061 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.4491)
= $85.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4296 + -0.0061 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.2822)
= $72.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.06% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of November 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.