Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a leading designer, marketer, and distributor of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily targeting the casual lifestyle and high-performance sectors. Headquartered in Goleta, California, the company is renowned for its innovative brands, including UGG, HOKA ONE ONE, Teva, and Sanuk, which cater to a diverse consumer base. With a strong commitment to sustainability and product quality, Deckers continues to expand its market presence, leveraging e-commerce and international growth strategies to enhance shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.39% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 20, 2026 was $118.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 233.77% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: January 29, 2026
a = 6.6591
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1576
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1576) – 1
= 87.86%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6591 + -0.0012 × 1,185 + 2 × 0.1576)
= Exp(5.5565)
= $258.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6591 + -0.0012 × 1,185 – 2 × 0.1576)
= Exp(4.9259)
= $137.82
January 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6591 + -0.0012 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.1576)
= Exp(4.8194)
= $123.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6591 + -0.0012 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.1576)
= Exp(4.1889)
= $65.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.39% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 20, 2026 was $118.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2025
End date: February 20, 2026
a = -1.2438
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0504
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 233.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.31%
October 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2438 + 0.0033 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.5003)
= $90.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2438 + 0.0033 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.2989)
= $73.62
February 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2438 + 0.0033 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.8768)
= $131.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2438 + 0.0033 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.6753)
= $107.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 233.77% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of February 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.