Stock Price Trends

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a leading designer, marketer, and distributor of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily targeting the casual lifestyle and high-performance sectors. Headquartered in Goleta, California, the company is renowned for its innovative brands, including UGG, HOKA ONE ONE, Teva, and Sanuk, which cater to a diverse consumer base. With a strong commitment to sustainability and product quality, Deckers continues to expand its market presence, leveraging e-commerce and international growth strategies to enhance shareholder value.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.78% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of January 22, 2026 was $101.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 285.56% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of January 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: January 22, 2026

a = 6.7190

b = -0.0012

s = 0.1580

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1580) – 1
= 88.14%

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7190 + -0.0012 × 1,215 + 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(5.5606)
= $259.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7190 + -0.0012 × 1,215 – 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(4.9286)
= $138.18

January 22, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7190 + -0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(4.8228)
= $124.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7190 + -0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(4.1908)
= $66.07

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.78% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of January 22, 2026 was $101.62 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 29, 2025
End date: January 22, 2026

a = -2.0374

b = 0.0037

s = 0.0488

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 285.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.54%

October 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0374 + 0.0037 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.4862)
= $88.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0374 + 0.0037 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.2911)
= $73.04

January 22, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0374 + 0.0037 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.8005)
= $121.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0374 + 0.0037 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.6053)
= $100.02

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 285.56% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of January 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.