Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO)
Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, supplies, markets and sells private label and brand name footwear for women, men and children in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.90% per annum.
- SHOO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $42.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.00% per annum.
- SHOO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SHOO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 2.6925
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0675
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0675) – 1
= 31.02%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,010 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6925 + 0.0006 × 1,010 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.4649)
= $31.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,010 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6925 + 0.0006 × 1,010 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.1948)
= $24.40
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6925 + 0.0006 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.9767)
= $53.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6925 + 0.0006 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.7065)
= $40.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.90% per annum.
- SHOO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $42.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 24, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.9929
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.40%
September 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9929 + -0.0023 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.9361)
= $51.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9929 + -0.0023 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.8647)
= $47.69
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9929 + -0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.8066)
= $45.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9929 + -0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.7353)
= $41.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.00% per annum.
- SHOO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.