Stock Price Trends

Rogers Corporation (ROG)

Rogers Corporation designs, develops, manufactures and sells engineering materials and components worldwide. The company is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.59% per annum.
  • ROG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $101.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.87% per annum.
  • ROG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 2, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 6.3562

b = -0.0010

s = 0.1712

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1712) – 1
= 98.30%

November 2, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y491)
= Exp(a + b × X491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3562 + -0.0010 × 713 + 2 × 0.1712)
= Exp(5.9852)
= $397.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y491)
= Exp(a + b × X491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3562 + -0.0010 × 713 – 2 × 0.1712)
= Exp(5.3006)
= $200.45

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3562 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1712)
= Exp(4.8716)
= $130.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3562 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1712)
= Exp(4.1870)
= $65.83

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.59% per annum.
  • ROG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $101.00 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 2, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 5.4402

b = -0.0004

s = 0.1213

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1213) – 1
= 62.46%

November 2, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4402 + -0.0004 × 1,078 + 2 × 0.1213)
= Exp(5.2419)
= $189.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4402 + -0.0004 × 1,078 – 2 × 0.1213)
= Exp(4.7567)
= $116.36

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4402 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1213)
= Exp(4.9360)
= $139.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4402 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1213)
= Exp(4.4508)
= $85.70

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.87% per annum.
  • ROG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.