Stock Price Trends

Amphenol Corporation (APH)

Amphenol Corporation is a major producer of electronic and fiber optic connectors, cable and interconnect systems such as coaxial cables. Amphenol is a portmanteau from the corporation's original name, American Phenolic Corp.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.22% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $65.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.17 (9.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.16% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 21, 2023
End date: January 24, 2025

a = 2.3753

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0615

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0615) – 1
= 27.87%

February 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3753 + 0.0011 × 1,056 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.6756)
= $39.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3753 + 0.0011 × 1,056 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.4298)
= $30.87

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3753 + 0.0011 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(4.4594)
= $86.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3753 + 0.0011 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(4.2136)
= $67.60

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.22% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $65.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.17 (9.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 3.8480

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0530

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0530) – 1
= 23.63%

May 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8480 + 0.0002 × 1,493 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(4.2750)
= $71.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8480 + 0.0002 × 1,493 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(4.0629)
= $58.14

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8480 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(4.3464)
= $77.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8480 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(4.1343)
= $62.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.16% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.