Amphenol Corporation (APH)
Amphenol Corporation is a major producer of electronic and fiber optic connectors, cable and interconnect systems such as coaxial cables. Amphenol is a portmanteau from the corporation's original name, American Phenolic Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.91% per annum.
- APH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $70.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.53% per annum.
- APH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.1002
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.32%
April 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0012 × 1,232 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.6984)
= $40.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0012 × 1,232 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.4568)
= $31.72
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(4.4106)
= $82.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(4.1691)
= $64.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.91% per annum.
- APH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $70.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.8888
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.22%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8888 + 0.0002 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.2634)
= $71.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8888 + 0.0002 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.0792)
= $59.10
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8888 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.2975)
= $73.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8888 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.1133)
= $61.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.53% per annum.
- APH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.