Littelfuse Inc (LFUS)
Littelfuse, Inc. manufactures and sells circuit protection, power control, and sensing products in Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and Europe. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.15% per annum.
- LFUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $237.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.73% per annum.
- LFUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.02 (0.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LFUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2020
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.5598
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.68%
December 4, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5598 + 0.0000 × 380 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.7149)
= $303.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5598 + 0.0000 × 380 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.3807)
= $217.18
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5598 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.6691)
= $289.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5598 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.3349)
= $207.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.15% per annum.
- LFUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $237.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.0524
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0431
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.83%
October 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0524 + 0.0003 × 1,413 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.5330)
= $252.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0524 + 0.0003 × 1,413 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.3605)
= $212.84
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0524 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.6483)
= $283.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0524 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.4758)
= $238.84
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.73% per annum.
- LFUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.02 (0.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.