Stock Price Trends

Belden Inc (BDC)

Belden Inc. is a signal transmission solutions company in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.28% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $100.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.60% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BDC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 7.0565

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0316

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.46%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0565 + -0.0013 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.8983)
= $134.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0565 + -0.0013 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.7720)
= $118.15

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0565 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.7065)
= $110.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0565 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.5802)
= $97.54

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.28% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $100.25 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 9.3910

b = -0.0026

s = 0.0228

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0228) – 1
= 9.54%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3910 + -0.0026 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.8316)
= $125.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3910 + -0.0026 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.7405)
= $114.49

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3910 + -0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.6506)
= $104.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3910 + -0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.5595)
= $95.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.60% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.