Stock Price Trends

Belden Inc (BDC)

Belden Inc. is a signal transmission solutions company in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.43% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $104.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.16% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BDC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 7.0653

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0314

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.37%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0653 + -0.0013 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.8982)
= $134.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0653 + -0.0013 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.7727)
= $118.24

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0653 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.7028)
= $110.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0653 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.5773)
= $97.26

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.43% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $104.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 9.0840

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0233

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0233) – 1
= 9.78%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0840 + -0.0025 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0233)
= Exp(4.8394)
= $126.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0840 + -0.0025 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0233)
= Exp(4.7461)
= $115.13

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0840 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0233)
= Exp(4.6529)
= $104.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0840 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0233)
= Exp(4.5596)
= $95.55

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.16% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.