Stock Price Trends

Belden Inc (BDC)

Belden Inc. is a signal transmission solutions company in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 70.96% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 138.55% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BDC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 23, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.1008

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0496

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 70.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.95%

October 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1008 + 0.0015 × 1,433 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.3054)
= $74.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1008 + 0.0015 × 1,433 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.1070)
= $60.76

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1008 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.8828)
= $132.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1008 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.6844)
= $108.24

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 70.96% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.68 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 0.4865

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0377

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 138.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0377) – 1
= 16.25%

July 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4865 + 0.0024 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.5753)
= $97.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4865 + 0.0024 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.4247)
= $83.49

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4865 + 0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.9112)
= $135.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4865 + 0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.7606)
= $116.81

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 138.55% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.