Stock Price Trends

Belden Inc (BDC)

Belden Inc. is a signal transmission solutions company in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.21% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $101.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.79% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.38 (2.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BDC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.5782

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0410

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0410) – 1
= 17.81%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5782 + -0.0016 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.9335)
= $138.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5782 + -0.0016 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.7696)
= $117.87

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5782 + -0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.6549)
= $105.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5782 + -0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.4910)
= $89.21

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.21% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $101.37 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 9.6022

b = -0.0028

s = 0.0336

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.38%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6022 + -0.0028 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.8678)
= $130.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6022 + -0.0028 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.7335)
= $113.69

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6022 + -0.0028 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.5951)
= $98.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6022 + -0.0028 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.4607)
= $86.55

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.79% per annum.
  • BDC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.38 (2.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.