Stock Price Trends

Premier Inc (PINC)

Premier, Inc., is a health improvement company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.85% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $22.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.70 (8.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (0.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PINC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 8, 2021
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 4.1617

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0805

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0805) – 1
= 37.98%

October 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y474)
= Exp(a + b × X474 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1617 + -0.0007 × 688 + 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(3.8338)
= $46.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y474)
= Exp(a + b × X474 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1617 + -0.0007 × 688 – 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(3.5119)
= $33.51

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1617 + -0.0007 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(3.0492)
= $21.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1617 + -0.0007 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(2.7273)
= $15.29

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.85% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $22.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.70 (8.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.1081

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0555

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0555) – 1
= 24.85%

August 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1081 + -0.0001 × 1,372 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(3.1294)
= $22.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1081 + -0.0001 × 1,372 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.9075)
= $18.31

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1081 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(3.0998)
= $22.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1081 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.8778)
= $17.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (0.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.