CVS Health Corp (CVS)
CVS Health (previously CVS Corporation and CVS Caremark Corporation) is an American healthcare company that owns CVS Pharmacy, a retail pharmacy chain; CVS Caremark, a pharmacy benefits manager; Aetna, a health insurance provider, among many other brands. The company's headquarters is in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.43% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $55.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.86% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.9882
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0796
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0796) – 1
= 37.47%
December 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y518)
= Exp(a + b × X518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9882 + -0.0005 × 751 + 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(4.7533)
= $115.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y518)
= Exp(a + b × X518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9882 + -0.0005 × 751 – 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(4.4351)
= $84.36
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9882 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(4.1894)
= $65.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9882 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(3.8712)
= $48.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.43% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $55.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.6974
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0461
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.25%
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6974 + 0.0002 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.1261)
= $61.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6974 + 0.0002 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(3.9417)
= $51.51
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6974 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.1680)
= $64.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6974 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(3.9836)
= $53.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.86% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.