CVS Health Corp (CVS)
CVS Health (previously CVS Corporation and CVS Caremark Corporation) is an American healthcare company that owns CVS Pharmacy, a retail pharmacy chain; CVS Caremark, a pharmacy benefits manager; Aetna, a health insurance provider, among many other brands. The company's headquarters is in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.95% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $67.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.44 (12.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 587.45% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (0.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 9, 2021
End date: February 11, 2025
a = 4.9230
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0828
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0828) – 1
= 39.29%
December 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y427)
= Exp(a + b × X427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9230 + -0.0005 × 617 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.7543)
= $116.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y427)
= Exp(a + b × X427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9230 + -0.0005 × 617 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.4229)
= $83.34
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9230 + -0.0005 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.1256)
= $61.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9230 + -0.0005 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.7942)
= $44.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.95% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $67.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.44 (12.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 16, 2024
End date: March 24, 2025
a = -5.3242
b = 0.0053
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0053) – 1
= 587.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.39%
December 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.3242 + 0.0053 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.8531)
= $47.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.3242 + 0.0053 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.6676)
= $39.16
March 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.3242 + 0.0053 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.3707)
= $79.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.3242 + 0.0053 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.1852)
= $65.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 587.45% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (0.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.