DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc (DVA)
DaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services through a network of outpatient dialysis centers in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.89% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $156.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.80% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.0625
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0875
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0875) – 1
= 41.91%
October 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0625 + 0.0011 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(4.4273)
= $83.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0625 + 0.0011 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(4.0773)
= $58.99
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0625 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(5.2623)
= $192.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0625 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(4.9123)
= $135.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.89% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $156.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.2830
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0841
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 77.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0841) – 1
= 39.99%
September 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2830 + 0.0016 × 1,409 + 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(4.6728)
= $107.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2830 + 0.0016 × 1,409 – 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(4.3364)
= $76.43
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2830 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(5.3303)
= $206.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2830 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(4.9939)
= $147.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.80% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.