Chemed Corp (CHE)
Chemed Corporation provides hospice and hospice services to patients through a network of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy, and volunteers across the United States. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.69% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $547.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $27.35 (4.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.18% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2022
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 5.8562
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0500
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.12%
January 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y543)
= Exp(a + b × X543 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8562 + 0.0003 × 790 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.2147)
= $500.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y543)
= Exp(a + b × X543 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8562 + 0.0003 × 790 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.0148)
= $409.45
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8562 + 0.0003 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.4856)
= $655.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8562 + 0.0003 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.2858)
= $536.87
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.69% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $547.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $27.35 (4.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.5526
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0472
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0472) – 1
= 20.79%
November 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0001 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(6.4786)
= $651.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0001 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(6.2897)
= $539.00
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(6.4337)
= $622.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5526 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(6.2449)
= $515.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.18% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.