Stock Price Trends

Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)

Kenvue Inc. is a consumer health company globally.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.11% per annum.
  • KVUE price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $24.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.44% per annum.
  • KVUE price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KVUE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 5, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 2.1091

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0476

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 100.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.99%

June 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1091 + 0.0019 × 398 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.9608)
= $19.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1091 + 0.0019 × 398 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.7703)
= $15.96

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 578 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1091 + 0.0019 × 578 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.3029)
= $27.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 578 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1091 + 0.0019 × 578 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.1124)
= $22.47

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.11% per annum.
  • KVUE price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $24.26 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 2.6708

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0291

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.34%

August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6708 + 0.0009 × 467 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.1266)
= $22.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6708 + 0.0009 × 467 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.0102)
= $20.29

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 578 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6708 + 0.0009 × 578 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.2211)
= $25.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 578 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6708 + 0.0009 × 578 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.1047)
= $22.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.44% per annum.
  • KVUE price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.