Stock Price Trends

Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G) is an American multinational consumer goods corporation headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, founded in 1837 by William Procter and James Gamble. It specializes in a wide range of personal health, consumer health, personal care, and hygiene products; these products are organized into several segments including Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine, & Family Care. Before the sale of Pringles to Kellogg's, its product portfolio also included food, snacks, and beverages.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.50% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $157.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.71% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: July 11, 2025

a = 5.3200

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0246

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0246) – 1
= 10.33%

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3200 + -0.0001 × 1,480 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.1826)
= $178.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3200 + -0.0001 × 1,480 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.0843)
= $161.46

July 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3200 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.1394)
= $170.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3200 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.0410)
= $154.63

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.50% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $157.05 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 20, 2025
End date: July 11, 2025

a = 7.1886

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0118

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.83%

May 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1886 + -0.0012 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(5.1434)
= $171.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1886 + -0.0012 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(5.0962)
= $163.40

July 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1886 + -0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(5.0827)
= $161.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1886 + -0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(5.0354)
= $153.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.71% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.