Stock Price Trends

Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G) is an American multinational consumer goods corporation headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, founded in 1837 by William Procter and James Gamble. It specializes in a wide range of personal health, consumer health, personal care, and hygiene products; these products are organized into several segments including Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine, & Family Care. Before the sale of Pringles to Kellogg's, its product portfolio also included food, snacks, and beverages.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.55% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $170.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: December 27, 2024

a = 4.5484

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0368

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0368) – 1
= 15.87%

August 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5484 + 0.0003 × 880 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(4.9283)
= $138.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5484 + 0.0003 × 880 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(4.7810)
= $119.23

December 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5484 + 0.0003 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.2241)
= $185.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5484 + 0.0003 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.0769)
= $160.27

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.55% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $170.56 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 4.9473

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0238

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0238) – 1
= 10.00%

May 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9473 + 0.0001 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.1491)
= $172.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9473 + 0.0001 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.0538)
= $156.61

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9473 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.1836)
= $178.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9473 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.0883)
= $162.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.