Stock Price Trends

Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G) is an American multinational consumer goods corporation headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, founded in 1837 by William Procter and James Gamble. It specializes in a wide range of personal health, consumer health, personal care, and hygiene products; these products are organized into several segments including Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine, & Family Care. Before the sale of Pringles to Kellogg's, its product portfolio also included food, snacks, and beverages.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.96% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $179.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 381.21% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: October 2, 2024

a = 4.1600

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0203

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0203) – 1
= 8.45%

September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1600 + 0.0006 × 1,393 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(4.9894)
= $146.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1600 + 0.0006 × 1,393 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(4.9082)
= $135.40

October 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1600 + 0.0006 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(5.2000)
= $181.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1600 + 0.0006 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(5.1189)
= $167.14

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.96% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $179.70 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = -2.6570

b = 0.0043

s = 0.0094

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 381.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0094) – 1
= 3.84%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6570 + 0.0043 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.1099)
= $165.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6570 + 0.0043 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.0722)
= $159.53

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6570 + 0.0043 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.2218)
= $185.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6570 + 0.0043 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.1841)
= $178.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 381.21% per annum.
  • PG price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.