Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is an American multinational manufacturer and marketer of prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance and hair care products, based in Midtown Manhattan, New York City. The company owns a diverse portfolio of brands, distributed internationally through both digital commerce and retail channels.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.75% per annum.
- EL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $65.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.92 (14.32%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.78% per annum.
- EL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2021
End date: October 31, 2024
a = 6.5672
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1240
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1240) – 1
= 64.23%
July 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5672 + -0.0011 × 610 + 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(6.1521)
= $469.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5672 + -0.0011 × 610 – 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(5.6560)
= $286.00
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5672 + -0.0011 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(4.8518)
= $127.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5672 + -0.0011 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(4.3557)
= $77.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.75% per annum.
- EL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $65.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.92 (14.32%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 9.5116
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0762
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -64.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.61%
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5116 + -0.0029 × 1,553 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(5.2234)
= $185.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5116 + -0.0029 × 1,553 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.9187)
= $136.83
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5116 + -0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.4428)
= $85.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5116 + -0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.1381)
= $62.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.78% per annum.
- EL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.