Coty Inc (COTY)
Coty Inc., manufactures, markets, distributes and sells beauty products worldwide. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $7.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.02 (0.31%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.16% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.8220
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0550
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.58%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8220 + -0.0015 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.7024)
= $14.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8220 + -0.0015 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.4826)
= $11.97
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8220 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.1886)
= $8.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8220 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(1.9688)
= $7.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $7.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.02 (0.31%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 11.1558
b = -0.0050
s = 0.0399
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0050) – 1
= -84.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0399) – 1
= 17.32%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1558 + -0.0050 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.3465)
= $10.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1558 + -0.0050 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.1868)
= $8.91
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1558 + -0.0050 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.0184)
= $7.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1558 + -0.0050 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(1.8587)
= $6.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.16% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.