Stock Price Trends

Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)

Ingredion Incorporated, produces and sells starches and sweeteners for various industries. The company is headquartered in Westchester, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.34% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $148.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.25% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 6, 2023
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 3.2223

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0395

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0395) – 1
= 17.13%

September 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0009 × 1,373 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.6029)
= $99.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0009 × 1,373 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.4448)
= $85.18

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.0323)
= $153.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.8742)
= $130.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.34% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $148.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 4, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 2.0842

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0311

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0311) – 1
= 13.25%

June 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0842 + 0.0016 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.7767)
= $118.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0842 + 0.0016 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.6523)
= $104.82

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0842 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(5.0661)
= $158.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0842 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.9417)
= $140.01

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.25% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.