Bunge Limited (BG)
Bunge Limited is a global food and agribusiness company. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.05% per annum.
- BG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $88.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.13% per annum.
- BG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.4502
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0830
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0830) – 1
= 39.39%
October 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y486)
= Exp(a + b × X486 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4502 + 0.0001 × 706 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.6743)
= $107.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y486)
= Exp(a + b × X486 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4502 + 0.0001 × 706 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.3421)
= $76.87
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4502 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.7664)
= $117.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4502 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.4342)
= $84.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.05% per annum.
- BG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $88.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 7.3712
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0403
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0403) – 1
= 17.51%
June 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3712 + -0.0016 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(4.7772)
= $118.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3712 + -0.0016 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(4.6159)
= $101.07
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3712 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(4.5396)
= $93.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3712 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(4.3782)
= $79.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.13% per annum.
- BG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.