Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a leading global player in food processing and commodities trading, established in 1902 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. With a robust operational footprint comprising over 270 plants and 420 crop procurement facilities, ADM processes cereal grains and oilseeds into a diverse range of products that serve the food, beverage, nutraceutical, industrial, and animal feed sectors. The company's extensive supply chain and commitment to sustainability position it favorably to meet the increasing global demand for food and agricultural products, making it a strategic investment opportunity in the evolving agri-business landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.87% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of March 10, 2026 was $69.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.73% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of March 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2025
End date: March 10, 2026
a = 2.1413
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0513
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0513) – 1
= 22.77%
February 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1413 + 0.0011 × 1,426 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.8763)
= $48.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1413 + 0.0011 × 1,426 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.6712)
= $39.30
March 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1413 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(4.3331)
= $76.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1413 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(4.1280)
= $62.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.87% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of March 10, 2026 was $69.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2025
End date: March 10, 2026
a = 3.0393
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0477
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0477) – 1
= 21.01%
August 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0393 + 0.0006 × 1,608 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.1433)
= $63.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0393 + 0.0006 × 1,608 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(3.9525)
= $52.07
March 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0393 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.2794)
= $72.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0393 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.0886)
= $59.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.73% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of March 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.