Stock Price Trends

Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR)

Darling Ingredients Inc. develops, produces and sells natural ingredients from edible and non-edible bio-nutrients. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.59% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $41.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 163.90% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: November 8, 2024

a = 5.1291

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0974

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.64%

February 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y570)
= Exp(a + b × X570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1291 + -0.0008 × 830 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(4.6209)
= $101.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y570)
= Exp(a + b × X570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1291 + -0.0008 × 830 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(4.2313)
= $68.81

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1291 + -0.0008 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.7875)
= $44.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1291 + -0.0008 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.3979)
= $29.90

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.59% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $41.78 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 9, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -1.1223

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0246

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 163.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0246) – 1
= 10.34%

September 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1223 + 0.0027 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.5902)
= $36.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1223 + 0.0027 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.4918)
= $32.84

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1223 + 0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.7816)
= $43.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1223 + 0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.6832)
= $39.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 163.90% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.