Fabrinet (FN)
Fabrinet offers optical packaging and precision electronic, electromechanical and optical manufacturing services in North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe. The company is headquartered in George Town, the Cayman Islands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.73% per annum.
- FN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $226.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $96.09 (29.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.81% per annum.
- FN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: March 18, 2024
a = 1.8778
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0876
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 125.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0876) – 1
= 41.97%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0022 × 1,205 + 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(4.7410)
= $114.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0022 × 1,205 – 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(4.3905)
= $80.68
March 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0022 × 1,579 + 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(5.5753)
= $263.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0022 × 1,579 – 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(5.2248)
= $185.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.73% per annum.
- FN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $226.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $96.09 (29.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.5676
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0845
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0845) – 1
= 40.19%
August 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0011 × 1,370 + 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(5.2284)
= $186.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0011 × 1,370 – 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(4.8905)
= $133.03
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(5.7249)
= $306.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(5.3871)
= $218.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.81% per annum.
- FN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.