Stock Price Trends

Sanmina Corporation (SANM)

Sanmina Corporation offers integrated solutions for manufacturing, components, products and repair, logistics and after-sales services globally. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.02% per annum.
  • SANM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $76.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.55 (3.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.18% per annum.
  • SANM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.55 (3.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SANM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 13, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025

a = 2.5190

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0569

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0569) – 1
= 25.56%

October 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5190 + 0.0011 × 1,290 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(4.0188)
= $55.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5190 + 0.0011 × 1,290 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(3.7912)
= $44.31

February 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5190 + 0.0011 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(4.5603)
= $95.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5190 + 0.0011 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(4.3327)
= $76.15

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.02% per annum.
  • SANM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $76.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.55 (3.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 4, 2025
End date: March 18, 2025

a = 13.7763

b = -0.0052

s = 0.0345

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0052) – 1
= -85.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.78%

February 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7763 + -0.0052 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.5867)
= $98.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7763 + -0.0052 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.4489)
= $85.53

March 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7763 + -0.0052 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.3670)
= $78.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7763 + -0.0052 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.2292)
= $68.66

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.18% per annum.
  • SANM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.55 (3.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.