IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP)
IPG Photonics is a manufacturer of fiber lasers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.16% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $55.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.74% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.13 (0.24%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IPGP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 5.7500
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0810
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0810) – 1
= 38.24%
February 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7500 + -0.0009 × 1,044 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.0054)
= $149.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7500 + -0.0009 × 1,044 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(4.6816)
= $107.94
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7500 + -0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(4.3290)
= $75.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7500 + -0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(4.0052)
= $54.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.16% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $55.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2024
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 7.6476
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0500
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.12%
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6476 + -0.0019 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.5157)
= $91.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6476 + -0.0019 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.3159)
= $74.88
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6476 + -0.0019 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.2112)
= $67.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6476 + -0.0019 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.0113)
= $55.22
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.74% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.13 (0.24%).