IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP)
IPG Photonics is a manufacturer of fiber lasers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.92% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $72.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 133.62% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.82 (3.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IPGP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2023
End date: October 25, 2024
a = 5.9627
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0810
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0810) – 1
= 38.26%
February 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9627 + -0.0009 × 1,182 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.0192)
= $151.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9627 + -0.0009 × 1,182 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(4.6952)
= $109.42
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9627 + -0.0009 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(4.4403)
= $84.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9627 + -0.0009 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(4.1163)
= $61.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.92% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $72.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 0.1651
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 133.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0425) – 1
= 18.55%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1651 + 0.0023 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.2487)
= $70.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1651 + 0.0023 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.0785)
= $59.06
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1651 + 0.0023 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.4789)
= $88.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1651 + 0.0023 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.3087)
= $74.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 133.62% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.82 (3.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.