Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)
Cardinal Health, Inc. is an American multinational health care services company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.78 (3.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.93% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 3.1207
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0640
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0640) – 1
= 29.18%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1207 + 0.0010 × 624 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(3.8708)
= $47.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1207 + 0.0010 × 624 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(3.6148)
= $37.14
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1207 + 0.0010 × 1,612 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.8558)
= $128.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1207 + 0.0010 × 1,612 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.5997)
= $99.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.78 (3.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 12, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.5374
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0646
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0646) – 1
= 29.50%
August 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0007 × 996 + 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(4.3388)
= $76.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0007 × 996 – 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(4.0803)
= $59.16
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(4.8989)
= $134.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(4.6405)
= $103.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.93% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.