Patterson Companies Inc (PDCO)
Patterson Companies, Inc. distributes and sells dental and animal health products in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $30.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.12 (7.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 504.23% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PDCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2020
End date: December 10, 2024
a = 3.4029
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0864
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0864) – 1
= 41.28%
December 2, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4029 + -0.0001 × 309 + 2 × 0.0864)
= Exp(3.5394)
= $34.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4029 + -0.0001 × 309 – 2 × 0.0864)
= Exp(3.1937)
= $24.38
December 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4029 + -0.0001 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0864)
= Exp(3.3668)
= $28.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4029 + -0.0001 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0864)
= Exp(3.0212)
= $20.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $30.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.12 (7.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = -5.5078
b = 0.0049
s = 0.0925
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0049) – 1
= 504.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0925) – 1
= 44.78%
October 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5078 + 0.0049 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0925)
= Exp(3.0995)
= $22.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5078 + 0.0049 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0925)
= Exp(2.7295)
= $15.32
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5078 + 0.0049 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0925)
= Exp(3.6761)
= $39.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5078 + 0.0049 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0925)
= Exp(3.3061)
= $27.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 504.23% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.