Stock Price Trends

Henry Schein Inc (HSIC)

Henry Schein, Inc. is an American distributor of health care products and services with a presence in 32 countries.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.39% per annum.
  • HSIC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $76.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 684.63% per annum.
  • HSIC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HSIC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 4, 2021
End date: January 24, 2025

a = 4.4344

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0616

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0616) – 1
= 27.97%

May 4, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4344 + -0.0001 × 462 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.5140)
= $91.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4344 + -0.0001 × 462 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.2674)
= $71.34

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4344 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.3855)
= $80.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4344 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.1389)
= $62.73

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.39% per annum.
  • HSIC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $76.69 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 10, 2025
End date: January 27, 2025

a = -5.9669

b = 0.0056

s = 0.0050

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0056) – 1
= 684.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0050) – 1
= 2.02%

January 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9669 + 0.0056 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0050)
= Exp(4.2530)
= $70.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9669 + 0.0056 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0050)
= Exp(4.2330)
= $68.92

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9669 + 0.0056 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0050)
= Exp(4.3490)
= $77.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9669 + 0.0056 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0050)
= Exp(4.3289)
= $75.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 684.63% per annum.
  • HSIC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.