Azenta Inc (AZTA)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.32% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $40.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.34% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.22 (5.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AZTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 5.0659
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1709
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1709) – 1
= 98.11%
January 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0009 × 421 + 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(5.0237)
= $151.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0009 × 421 – 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(4.3401)
= $76.71
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0009 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(4.0816)
= $59.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0009 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(3.3980)
= $29.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.32% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $40.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2022
End date: October 7, 2024
a = 3.6746
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1323) – 1
= 69.75%
August 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,003 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0002 × 1,003 + 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(4.1337)
= $62.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,003 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0002 × 1,003 – 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(3.6045)
= $36.76
October 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0002 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(4.2850)
= $72.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6746 + 0.0002 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(3.7558)
= $42.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.34% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.22 (5.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.