Avantor Inc (AVTR)
Avantor, Inc. provides products and services to clients in the biopharmaceutical, healthcare, education and government, advanced technologies and applied materials industries in America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The company is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.90% per annum.
- AVTR price at the close of October 21, 2024 was $24.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.27 (34.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.66% per annum.
- AVTR price at the close of October 21, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 4.1452
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1282
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1282) – 1
= 67.01%
April 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1452 + -0.0008 × 531 + 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(3.9656)
= $52.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1452 + -0.0008 × 531 – 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(3.4528)
= $31.59
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1452 + -0.0008 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(3.1601)
= $23.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1452 + -0.0008 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(2.6473)
= $14.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.90% per annum.
- AVTR price at the close of October 21, 2024 was $24.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.27 (34.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: October 21, 2024
a = 2.7346
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0779
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0779) – 1
= 36.54%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7346 + 0.0003 × 1,060 + 2 × 0.0779)
= Exp(3.1582)
= $23.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7346 + 0.0003 × 1,060 – 2 × 0.0779)
= Exp(2.8467)
= $17.23
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7346 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0779)
= Exp(3.3518)
= $28.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7346 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0779)
= Exp(3.0403)
= $20.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.66% per annum.
- AVTR price at the close of October 21, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.