Illumina Inc (ILMN)
Illumina, Inc. is an American company. Incorporated on April 1, 1998, Illumina develops, manufactures, and markets integrated systems for the analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The company provides a line of products and services that serves the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression, and proteomics markets. Its headquarters are located in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 90.23% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $138.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.03 (7.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.29% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ILMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 1.8851
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0489
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 90.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0489) – 1
= 21.59%
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8851 + 0.0018 × 1,557 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(4.7260)
= $112.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8851 + 0.0018 × 1,557 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(4.5306)
= $92.81
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8851 + 0.0018 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(5.1277)
= $168.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8851 + 0.0018 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(4.9323)
= $138.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 90.23% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $138.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.03 (7.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 4, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 6.0505
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.01%
October 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0505 + -0.0006 × 1,711 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.0575)
= $157.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0505 + -0.0006 × 1,711 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.9177)
= $136.69
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0505 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.9861)
= $146.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0505 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.8463)
= $127.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.29% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.