American International Group Inc (AIG)
American International Group, Inc., also known as AIG, is an American multinational finance and insurance corporation with operations in more than 80 countries and jurisdictions. The company operates through three core businesses: General Insurance, Life & Retirement, and a standalone technology-enabled subsidiary.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.74% per annum.
- AIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $75.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.35% per annum.
- AIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $14.80 (16.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AIG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2021
End date: November 29, 2023
a = 3.7464
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0815
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0815) – 1
= 38.52%
March 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7464 + 0.0002 × 468 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(4.0167)
= $55.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7464 + 0.0002 × 468 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.6909)
= $40.08
November 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7464 + 0.0002 × 1,470 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(4.2467)
= $69.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7464 + 0.0002 × 1,470 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.9208)
= $50.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.74% per annum.
- AIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $75.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: June 4, 2024
a = 2.5484
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0271) – 1
= 11.44%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5484 + 0.0011 × 1,205 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(3.9268)
= $50.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5484 + 0.0011 × 1,205 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(3.8185)
= $45.54
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5484 + 0.0011 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(4.4246)
= $83.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5484 + 0.0011 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(4.3163)
= $74.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.35% per annum.
- AIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $14.80 (16.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.