Stock Price Trends

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)

Horace Mann Educators Corporation, is a multi-line insurance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.97% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $43.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.59% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 2.5966

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0543

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.26%

May 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.4063)
= $30.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.1891)
= $24.27

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.8198)
= $45.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.6026)
= $36.69

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.97% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $43.44 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 1.9091

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0413

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.97%

June 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,530 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.5374)
= $34.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,530 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.3722)
= $29.14

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.8354)
= $46.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.6702)
= $39.26

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.59% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.