Stock Price Trends

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)

Horace Mann Educators Corporation, is a multi-line insurance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.72% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $40.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.44% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 2.6198

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0538

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0538) – 1
= 24.01%

May 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,122 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.4063)
= $30.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,122 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.1911)
= $24.32

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.8305)
= $46.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.6153)
= $37.16

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.72% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $40.69 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 2.0625

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0432

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.86%

June 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.5493)
= $34.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.3765)
= $29.27

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.8452)
= $46.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.6724)
= $39.35

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.44% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.