Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
Horace Mann Educators Corporation, is a multi-line insurance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.32% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $40.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.59% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.35 (3.44%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 2.1143
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.13%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,281 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.3614)
= $28.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,281 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.1947)
= $24.40
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.6802)
= $39.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1143 + 0.0009 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.5136)
= $33.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.32% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $40.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2023
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 3.0740
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0446
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.52%
October 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0740 + 0.0003 × 1,426 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.5564)
= $35.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0740 + 0.0003 × 1,426 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.3781)
= $29.32
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0740 + 0.0003 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.6626)
= $38.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0740 + 0.0003 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.4843)
= $32.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.59% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.35 (3.44%).