Stock Price Trends

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)

Horace Mann Educators Corporation, is a multi-line insurance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.03% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $43.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.68% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.5956

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0543

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.27%

May 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5956 + 0.0006 × 1,147 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.4061)
= $30.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5956 + 0.0006 × 1,147 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.1888)
= $24.26

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5956 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.8210)
= $45.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5956 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.6037)
= $36.73

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.03% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $43.46 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 1.9073

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0412

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.93%

June 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9073 + 0.0010 × 1,529 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.5371)
= $34.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9073 + 0.0010 × 1,529 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.3721)
= $29.14

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9073 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.8366)
= $46.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9073 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.6717)
= $39.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.68% per annum.
  • HMN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.