Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
Horace Mann Educators Corporation, is a multi-line insurance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.97% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $43.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.59% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 2.5966
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0543
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.26%
May 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.4063)
= $30.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.1891)
= $24.27
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.8198)
= $45.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5966 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.6026)
= $36.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.97% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $43.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 1.9091
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0413
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.97%
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,530 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.5374)
= $34.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,530 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.3722)
= $29.14
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.8354)
= $46.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9091 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.6702)
= $39.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.59% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.