Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
Horace Mann Educators Corporation, is a multi-line insurance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.72% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $40.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.44% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 2.6198
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0538
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0538) – 1
= 24.01%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,122 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.4063)
= $30.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,122 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.1911)
= $24.32
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.8305)
= $46.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6198 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.6153)
= $37.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.72% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $40.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 2.0625
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0432
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.86%
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.5493)
= $34.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.3765)
= $29.27
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.8452)
= $46.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0625 + 0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.6724)
= $39.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.44% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.