American Financial Group Inc (AFG)
American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, offers property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.82% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $138.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.22% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AFG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: November 7, 2024
a = 4.5676
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0684
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0684) – 1
= 31.48%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5676 + 0.0001 × 624 + 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(4.7849)
= $119.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5676 + 0.0001 × 624 – 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(4.5112)
= $91.03
November 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5676 + 0.0001 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(4.9384)
= $139.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5676 + 0.0001 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(4.6647)
= $106.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.82% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $138.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.7813
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0396
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.17%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7813 + 0.0006 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.6937)
= $109.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7813 + 0.0006 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.5353)
= $93.25
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7813 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.9858)
= $146.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7813 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.8274)
= $124.89
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.22% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.