Stock Price Trends

Vontier Corp (VNT)

Vontier Corporation is dedicated to the research and development, manufacture, sale and distribution of equipment, components, software and critical technical services for manufacturing, repair and service in the mobility infrastructure industry worldwide. The company is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.93% per annum.
  • VNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.71 (20.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.69% per annum.
  • VNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.46 (7.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 19, 2022
End date: June 5, 2024

a = 1.9859

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0837

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0837) – 1
= 39.78%

August 19, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9859 + 0.0013 × 693 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(3.0802)
= $21.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9859 + 0.0013 × 693 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(2.7453)
= $15.57

June 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9859 + 0.0013 × 1,349 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(3.9575)
= $52.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9859 + 0.0013 × 1,349 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(3.6226)
= $37.44

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.93% per annum.
  • VNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.71 (20.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 16, 2024
End date: October 30, 2024

a = 5.2955

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0412

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.93%

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2955 + -0.0012 × 1,239 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.8797)
= $48.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2955 + -0.0012 × 1,239 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.7147)
= $41.05

October 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2955 + -0.0012 × 1,496 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.5689)
= $35.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2955 + -0.0012 × 1,496 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.4039)
= $30.08

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.69% per annum.
  • VNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.46 (7.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.