Stock Price Trends

Badger Meter Inc (BMI)

Badger Meter, Inc. manufactures and markets flow measurement, control, quality and communication solutions in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, Mexico, the Middle East, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.01% per annum.
  • BMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $211.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $72.43 (25.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.19% per annum.
  • BMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 19, 2022
End date: September 20, 2023

a = 2.9844

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0542

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.19%

April 19, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9844 + 0.0015 × 881 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(4.4298)
= $83.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y606)
= Exp(a + b × X606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9844 + 0.0015 × 881 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(4.2131)
= $67.57

September 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9844 + 0.0015 × 1,400 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(5.2174)
= $184.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9844 + 0.0015 × 1,400 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(5.0007)
= $148.52

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.01% per annum.
  • BMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $211.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $72.43 (25.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 21, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.6221

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0726

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0726) – 1
= 33.68%

July 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y670)
= Exp(a + b × X670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6221 + 0.0010 × 974 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(4.7066)
= $110.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y670)
= Exp(a + b × X670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6221 + 0.0010 × 974 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(4.4163)
= $82.79

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6221 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(5.5282)
= $251.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6221 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(5.2379)
= $188.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.19% per annum.
  • BMI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.