Stock Price Trends

Cognex Corporation (CGNX)

Cognex Corporation offers machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information to automate manufacturing and distribution tasks globally. The company is headquartered in Natick, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.34% per annum.
  • CGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $39.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.80% per annum.
  • CGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CGNX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 11, 2020
End date: April 26, 2024

a = 4.7602

b = -0.0007

s = 0.1350

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1350) – 1
= 71.62%

December 11, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7602 + -0.0007 × 387 + 2 × 0.1350)
= Exp(4.7484)
= $115.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7602 + -0.0007 × 387 – 2 × 0.1350)
= Exp(4.2083)
= $67.24

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7602 + -0.0007 × 1,619 + 2 × 0.1350)
= Exp(3.8512)
= $47.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7602 + -0.0007 × 1,619 – 2 × 0.1350)
= Exp(3.3111)
= $27.42

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.34% per annum.
  • CGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $39.26 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.0537

b = -0.0002

s = 0.1083

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1083) – 1
= 54.24%

May 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0537 + -0.0002 × 898 + 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(4.0972)
= $60.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0537 + -0.0002 × 898 – 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(3.6639)
= $39.01

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0537 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(3.9183)
= $50.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0537 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(3.4849)
= $32.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.80% per annum.
  • CGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.