Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)
Upbound Group, Inc., an omni-channel platform company, leases household durable goods to customers on a lease-to-own basis in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.18% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $34.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.65% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.69 (5.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPBD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 23, 2022
End date: September 5, 2024
a = 2.4700
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1098
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1098) – 1
= 55.15%
March 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 841 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4700 + 0.0006 × 841 + 2 × 0.1098)
= Exp(3.2070)
= $24.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 841 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4700 + 0.0006 × 841 – 2 × 0.1098)
= Exp(2.7678)
= $15.92
September 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4700 + 0.0006 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.1098)
= Exp(3.7588)
= $42.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4700 + 0.0006 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.1098)
= Exp(3.3196)
= $27.65
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.18% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $34.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.8530
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0467
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0467) – 1
= 20.52%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8530 + -0.0002 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(3.5816)
= $35.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8530 + -0.0002 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(3.3950)
= $29.81
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8530 + -0.0002 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(3.5002)
= $33.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8530 + -0.0002 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(3.3136)
= $27.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.65% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.69 (5.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.