Stock Price Trends

Best Buy Co. Inc (BBY)

Best Buy Co., Inc. is an American multinational consumer electronics retailer headquartered in Richfield, Minnesota.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.85% per annum.
  • BBY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $86.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.20% per annum.
  • BBY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BBY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2023
End date: November 15, 2024

a = 2.7860

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0560

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0560) – 1
= 25.12%

September 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0010 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.2601)
= $70.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0010 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.0360)
= $56.60

November 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0010 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.6773)
= $107.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0010 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.4532)
= $85.90

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.85% per annum.
  • BBY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $86.77 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 9.3395

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0163

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.74%

September 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3395 + -0.0027 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.6518)
= $104.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3395 + -0.0027 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.5866)
= $98.16

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3395 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.5052)
= $90.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3395 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.4400)
= $84.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.20% per annum.
  • BBY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.