Stock Price Trends

GameStop Corp (GME)

GameStop Corp. The company is headquartered in Grapevine, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.28% per annum.
  • GME price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $27.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.18 (93.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.84% per annum.
  • GME price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GME price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 3, 2021
End date: May 8, 2024

a = 4.5511

b = -0.0012

s = 0.1745

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1745) – 1
= 100.99%

March 3, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5511 + -0.0012 × 456 + 2 × 0.1745)
= Exp(4.3372)
= $76.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5511 + -0.0012 × 456 – 2 × 0.1745)
= Exp(3.6391)
= $38.06

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5511 + -0.0012 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.1745)
= Exp(2.9026)
= $18.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5511 + -0.0012 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.1745)
= Exp(2.2045)
= $9.07

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.28% per annum.
  • GME price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $27.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.18 (93.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 0.1548

b = 0.0017

s = 0.2170

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2170) – 1
= 138.25%

October 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1548 + 0.0017 × 1,399 + 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(2.9642)
= $19.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1548 + 0.0017 × 1,399 – 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(2.0961)
= $8.13

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1548 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(3.6892)
= $40.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1548 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2170)
= Exp(2.8211)
= $16.79

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.84% per annum.
  • GME price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.