Stock Price Trends

Spire Inc (SR)

Spire Inc. engages in the purchase, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and other end-users of natural gas in the United States. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.22% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $68.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 543.81% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 11, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.1583

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0272

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0272) – 1
= 11.51%

January 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1583 + 0.0006 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(4.0776)
= $59.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1583 + 0.0006 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(3.9687)
= $52.92

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1583 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(4.2573)
= $70.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1583 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(4.1483)
= $63.33

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.22% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $68.39 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 1, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -5.0891

b = 0.0051

s = 0.0093

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 543.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0093) – 1
= 3.81%

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.0891 + 0.0051 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.1489)
= $63.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.0891 + 0.0051 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.1115)
= $61.04

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.0891 + 0.0051 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.2459)
= $69.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.0891 + 0.0051 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.2085)
= $67.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 543.81% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.